Lazy Bull Weekly #11 -Rockets, Rates & Really Expensive Oil

🧨 The Situation:

Israel has hit Iranian nuclear sites, oil depots, and the South Pars gas field. Iran replied with missile and drone attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa. Casualties? 224 in Iran, 14 in Israel and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, now feels like a powder keg with a short fuse.

📊 Market Impacts:

• 🛢️ Oil Surges: Brent crude jumped nearly 4% to $76.94. Any Hormuz disruption could send it flying past $100. Inflation isn't dead — it’s just reloading.

• 📉 Stocks Slide: Global markets dipped on June 13. S&P 500 saw financials -2.06%, tech -1.5%. Asia managed a tiny rebound while pretending the world’s not on fire.

• 🪙 Safe Havens Rally: Gold, U.S. Dollar, and defense stocks (Lockheed, RTX) are the new hot dates. When in doubt, bet on bullets and bullion.

• 🚢 Shipping Costs Rise: Houthi threats near the Gulf of Aden plus Israeli coastline tensions = rerouted tankers and insurance companies jacking rates. Energean halted ops offshore Israel.

💸 Economic Outlook:

Supply shocks and conflict risk could push inflation higher again. Meanwhile, diplomatic calls are being made, but Iran just walked away from nuclear talks, so… yeah.

🔮 What to Expect in the Coming Weeks:

• Oil Price Volatility: $80 is likely. $100 if the Strait gets blocked. Gas station owners are smiling already.

• Defense Earnings Preview: Expect a media push and investor run-up on military suppliers. Arms demand = new growth story?

• Central Bank Jitters: More inflation? Cue another round of "will they or won’t they" rate hikes.

• Possible Cyber/Proxy Escalations: Watch for Iranian-backed groups or cyberattacks — both could rattle markets even without direct military involvement.

• Commodities in Focus: If escalation continues, traders may pile into energy, metals, and agriculture as hedges.

🛋️ Lazy Bull Take:
The world’s nervous. Markets are twitchy. But as always don’t YOLO panic. Let others trade headlines. You? Watch key assets like oil, gold, and defense stocks, and maybe review your inflation playbook… just in case this turns into the next 1970s rerun.

– Lazy Bull

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The content provided is for informational purposes only. Always do your own research