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- LAZY BULL WEEKLY #13 — Ceasefires, Chipmakers, and Cha-Ching
LAZY BULL WEEKLY #13 — Ceasefires, Chipmakers, and Cha-Ching
Markets Rally on War Ceasefire, AI Mania, and Powell Saying Basically Nothing
Hey you magnificent, mildly-capitalist beast.
Markets were lit this week peace talks turned into profit pops, Powell kept mum, and stocks acted like it’s Christmas in June. Let’s break it down, Lazy Bull-style.
🔥 Ceasefire = Market Fireworks
So, Trump (yes, he’s back) helped broker a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after a spicy 12-day scuffle featuring missile parties and nuclear-site cameos. Oil spiked to $78.50… then did a full dramatic exit, nosediving 18% to the mid-$60s once peace broke out.
Why does this matter?
Less war = more oil = cheaper prices = bulls doing victory laps.
🐂 Lazy Take: The market doesn’t care if the ceasefire holds it just wanted to believe. Cue the AI-generated rally.
📈 S&P & Nasdaq Hit New Highs (Again)
The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high of 614.91 and the Nasdaq? Basically did a backflip and landed perfectly. Even Dow Jones joined the party (+507 points), despite usually being the dad at the club.
What’s driving this?
Tech, AI, and more tech.
NVIDIA’s back on top as the most valuable company.
Fed rate cut odds for September? 76% wallstreetbets-approved.
🐂 Lazy Take: Bulls got exactly what they wanted — peace, rate cut whispers, and shiny tech toys. All is well (for now).
📊 Stock Highlights — Lazy Bull’s Quick Hits
✅ Nike – Jumped post-earnings. Apparently, selling overpriced shoes still works.
✅ Boeing – Up 5.9% after a “buy” upgrade. Finally flying in the right direction.
✅ Broadcom – Hit ATH after HSBC said, “Yeah, okay, we like chips again.”
❌ Coinbase – Down 5.8% ‘cause ARK dumped 33,000 shares. Cathie, we trusted you.
❌ Tesla – Down 1.4%. Robotaxis are still learning not to hit things. Classic.
🏦 Fed Watch – Powell’s Still Playing Hard to Get
Jerome Powell told Congress:
“Yeah, we might cut rates, but chill. Tariffs might mess things up again.”
Fed funds rate still chilling at 4.25%-4.5%
Jobless claims = 236K (still strong)
Consumer confidence = meh (93.0 vs. expected 99.8)
🐂 Lazy Take: The Fed is ghosting inflation and flirting with rate cuts. September might be the date. Maybe.
🛢️ Oil Rollercoaster
Ceasefire = price drop
Trump hinted at easing sanctions on Iran’s oil = more supply = even cheaper oil
Analysts: 60% chance this truce sticks
Oil risk premium: ~$2–3 per barrel
🐂 Lazy Take: From “we’re all gonna die” oil to “maybe gas will be cheap again.” Markets are vibing.
🔁 MARKET HINDSIGHT: What This Week Really Told Us
Peace headlines = instant green candles. Doesn’t even need to be real peace. Just a press release.
Tech is still king. You can bomb oil fields and shake global diplomacy, but if NVIDIA’s up, nobody blinks.
The Fed is the real market puppet master. Powell said nothing… and that was everything.
Retail’s back? Nike just dunked on the bear case. Consumers are broke, but their sneakers aren’t.
Everyone’s a macro genius — until the ceasefire breaks. Then it’s back to oil spikes and doom charts.
– Lazy Bull 🐃
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